Orphan Road

I appreciate the micro-targeting as much as the next guy, but is it odd to anyone else that none of the the new Yes on Prop. 1 ads, including the Pierce County ones, mention the controversial Cross Base Highway?

To me, this is more evidence that even the supporters of the plan don't think it's going to get built.

(Via CIS)

I admire Erica Barnett's work, especially her efforts to lay out the surface/transit option for the Viaduct so clearly and effectively. Most journalists are skeptical of anything that isn't a highway. Barnett is one of the few who "gets it" in that sense.

That said, I'm bothered by this piece in The Stranger, lauding the Sierra Club for refusing to "cave" on the Cross Base Highway and accusing environmental groups who support the RTID compromise of "selling out."

But politics is not a spectator sport, of course: tough skin is a job requirement. So let's talk about the substance of the article. Barnett laments the fact that the joint RTID/ST2 package is too roads-heavy, despite the fact that over 60% of it is going to transit. The project, she says, includes "1,500 new lane miles of freeways and arterials" but only "50 miles of light rail." Well, if we're going to compare lane-miles to rail-miles, then the number's at least 100, since the rail is double-tracked. And if we're going to talk about moving people instead of moving cars (which was Barnett's position during the Viaduct debate), then the 100 rail-miles have a capacity that's probably close or equal to the 1,500 lane-miles.

The main thrust of the complaint, though, is that the greenhouse gas emissions of the cars on all those new "lane miles" will cancel out the benefits of rail. But that assumes that car emissions stay constant, which is far from certain. It's more likely that cars will get cleaner and more fuel efficient over the next few decades (though cleaner cars are not the answer to everything). It also assumes that people won't change their ways when given the option of light rail. People like Barnett and myself argue constantly that people will gravitate to denser, more transit-oriented lifestyles if they're given the option. Isn't that still the case?

Finally, Barnett wonders, "why, then, would environmental groups sell out light rail for a package that only paves the way for that to happen?" The answer is that the environmentalists can still tie the CBH up in the courts for years, if not decades. By that time, light rail could be up and running from Everett to Tacoma to Redmond and maybe people, having seen the alternative, will stop clamoring for roads like the CBH and its ilk, and the project will die on the vine.

Look, the Sierra Club has every right to oppose the package. Their agenda is simple: fewer highways, more green space. Barnett, too, has every right to oppose it. But the real question, for those of us who have to go to the polls in November, is simple: is it worth pushing light rail back to 2040 or 2050 in the hopes that we will get a deal that's even better than the one on the table? Given the political realities of the region, our regressive tax system, and the skyrocketing costs of land, construction materials, and labor, the answer is a resounding "no."

The News Tribune has a good story on the aftermath of the last-minute effort to keep the cross-base highway from derailing the entire $17B RTID/ST2 package. I noted on Friday that the legislators essentially kicked the can down the road.

Here's what I mean by that:

First, RTID/ST2 will probably pass. The CBH will get funded. Then, the mediation process between all the relevant parties will start January 2009, which, as the TNT points out, is exactly when Pierce County exec Ladenburg -- whose "negotiating style made progress difficult" -- leaves office. In all likelihood, Council member Shawn Bunney, who's thought to be angling for Ladenburg's job and has a good shot at it, will replace him.

After a year or two of mediation, if they don't get what they want, the environmentalists will sue, send the project to the courts for a few years. Construction wasn't even scheduled to begin before 2019 anyway.

So I guess what I'm saying is that, for those of you who think the Cross Base Highway is so bad you want to scuttle all 50 miles of rail to protest it, think long and hard. The project is still not fully funded, and it has many hurdles to cross before concrete starts flowing. Given that tenuousness, it's hardly worth killing rail over it.

I'm at the RTID meeting this morning, and it looks like an agreement was reached last night to avoid a potential showdown over the Cross Base Highway. An compromise amendment was just passed unanimously. Sounds like people were up until the wee hours of the night last night figuring it out.

The compromise involves a mediation process, to start in January 2009, to mitigate the environmental impacts of the CBH and $105m in additional funds. The decision, more or less, "kicks the can down the road." Everyone agrees not to sue until after the mediation process has completed, but doesn't waive their right to do so afterward.

More to come...

Update: "the costs of delay way, WAY, outweigh the costs of the plan." - King County Councilmember Julia Patterson. Indeed.

Update 2: Okay, I finally got my hands on the official talking points: more money for SR167, a Tacoma Mall Access project, and funding for congestion relief on SR410 and SR162. Meanwhile, the mediation process on the CBH will move forward, including a host of local municipalities, the state, the military, and various environmental groups. So yeah: can kicked down the road.

Pierce County Councilman Shawn Bunney seems to have threaded the needle almost perfectly on this one, saving the RTID from what could have been a costly distraction.

Update 3: David Wickert at the TNT has the full story, indicating that the environmental groups are on board with the measure.

The News-Tribune has plenty of info on the maneuvering inside the Pierce County Council on the Cross Base Highway and RTID.

Long story short: the Council is split: four of them (plus exec Ladenburg) have put together a plan that increases CBH funding by $160M, while the remaining three, led by Shawn Bunney, have an alternative proposal that puts more money into Highway 167 and omits the CBH. Though Bunney seems to be outnumbered, he also happens to be the chairman of the RTID's executive board, which gives him added influence.

It's unclear where Ladenburg is getting the $160M number. The CBH was slated to get $477M in the RTID, but would have needed an additional $100M from other sources to be completed.

As for Bunney, he'll need to peel off two more votes to override the veto. Perhaps by putting more money into SR 167 he thinks he can pick up, say, Roger Bush (R-Graham) and Calvin Goings (D-Puyallup). But that's just wild speculation.

The Exec Board meets at 9am tomorrow. We'll know more after that.

If the RTID does pass sans Cross Base Highway, it will hinge on the Pierce County Council's moves this coming week. Pierce County Exec John Ladenburg claims he has the votes to kill it, others aren't so sure. According to the News-Tribune, here's where things stand:

The News Tribune contacted Pierce County Council members this week to find out where they stand on the regional roads package that does not include key funding for the cross-base highway. The council would need four votes to approve the roads package and five votes to overturn a threatened veto by County Executive John Ladenburg.

Here’s what council members said:

Shawn Bunney, R-Lake Tapps: Supports proposed package.

Roger Bush, R-Graham: Wants to see details before making up his mind.

Tim Farrell, D-Tacoma: Supports proposed package.

Barbara Gelman, D-Tacoma: Leaning against proposed package.

Calvin Goings, D-Puyallup: Opposes proposed package, saying it doesn’t spend enough on Highway 167.

Terry Lee, R-Gig Harbor: Wants more information before making up his mind.

Dick Muri, R-Steilacoom: Supports proposed package.

Three "yeas," two-ish "nays," and two undecideds. It's a nail-biter! They'll have to convince both Bush and Lee if they hope to override the veto. The three county councils will meet June 8 at 10am to vote on whether or not to even send the package to the voters. It's possible that some councils will approve it and some won't.

The Seattle Times' James Vesely says this is more evidence of how fragile the RTID is going into November.

Erica Barnett reports that the RTID will go through without the Cross Base Highway, which environmentalists oppose. It's a risky move, since Pierce County exec (and current Sound Transit chair) John Ladenburg really wants the highway and has said he'll fight the ballot measure if the Cross Base is eliminated. It's hard to see how having the chair of Sound Transit actively working against the organization would be a good thing for anyone. But maybe he'll realize he's outgunned and move on.

It would be a huge coup for environmentalists if the highway doesn't make the final cut.