soundtransit

The Time Has Come?

Thinking about the two posts I did last night, linking to the New York Times and the Financial Times, it occurs to me that we may have actually turned the corner in this country with respect to land use and transportation planning.

I’ve been ranting for a while now about the connection between land use patterns and energy consumption, but for a whle it seemed like shouting into the wind, especially as national politicians talked about how some magic pill like ethanol was going to solve all our problems. Lately, though, it seems like the connection between land use, public transit, energy consumption and national security is finally starting to gel in people’s minds.

It’s going to take a generation or more to slowly re-shape our cities to accommodate a world of expensive oil and gas, of course. And even in 2008 highway funding dwarfs transit funding. But I can’t help but get the sense that, after the ethanol miracle failed to deliver, people are finally getting serious about the idea that we need to approach the end of cheap oil with a holistic effort to change the way live and move on the planet.

A tale of three cities

Good blog post from Paul Krugman:

What’s more, as far as I can make out from the data, a lot more Canadians than Americans (as a percentage of the population) have switched to public transit over the past year; because the system is there, they have more flexibility.

All in all, this comparison is a reason not to believe apocalyptic warnings about the long-run effects of energy scarcity: there’s a lot of substitution possible. America’s main problem is that we have a capital stock — cars, public infrastructure, and housing — designed for dirt-cheap oil. And the transition may be nasty.

How Seattle Housing Gets Expensive

Neighbors complain that 190 parking stalls is not enough for a 160-unit apartment building. I imagine the meeting going something like, “so dig deeper! And don’t even think about recouping some of those extra costs by making the building bigger… it’s too big already!!”

40th and Stone is a pretty ped-friendly and transit-friendly spot. I’d be very surprised if the majority of apartment dwellers needed more than 0 or 1 cars.

Revitalization

What’s interesting about the article linked below is that it was written before the revitalization of America’s downtowns and the drop in urban crime in places like New York. From the standpoint of the late 1980s — Times Square had yet to be Disney-ified, Baltimore’s retro-downtown ballpark at Camden Yards hadn’t opened yet — things must have looked pretty bleak from the urban planner’s point of view (Joel Garreau’s Edge City came out in 1992).

All of which is to say that I think things are actually better right now. We’ve learned a lot in the past 20 years about the problems with sprawl — traffic, environmental stress, global warming, oil wars — and were slowly adjusting livnig and working patterns to adapt.

Planning and Town Homes

For my money, the money quote from Ben’s epic 6-part live blog of the Urban Land Institute’s conference is this paraphrase of Gov. Gregoire’s remarks:

She’s discussing funding mechanisms for transportation, and who permits development – the fact that we need to streamline permitting, for instance, where we now have a mishmash of city, county, state, and federal, rather than an integrated system.

She’s addressing framing very well here. She’s pointing out that we are not forcing anyone out of their cars, or to move to places where they don’t want to live, but rather we’re creating affordable housing and transportation that people will choose to live in, and choose to use.

She’s brought up LA and Houston as examples of cities where the choices made, where the planning used, did not effectively address growth – and that we don’t want to go that way, but we need to work together now, because we don’t have more time to wait.

The key part is “choose.” You have to make it attractive. Which is why this Times piece today on the brewing backlash against town homes is so interesting. Some are quite nice, but many are bland and from the outside, and almost all hide themselves from the street with monotonous wood fencing.

Still, town houses are the most reasonable way to densify the city and keep it affordable to middle-class families. So how do you make them better? Ditching the onerous parking requirements would be a start, so the market has room to innovate. Better design review might help. But the real issue, it seems to me, is that there’s no real financial incentive for better-designed townhomes.

Why? For one, you can’t copyright them easily. So, as one builder quoted in the article says, “once one guy cracks the code and develops one plan, everybody jumps on board and says, ‘I’ll just do that because it’s easy.’ ” Second, there’s a classic collective action problem: a sub-par design affects the whole neighborhood, but no one person (say, the buyer) is affected enough to justify paying a lot more for a better design (mortgages are expensive!). Finally, a design review process, no matter how strong, is always going to be weaker than the market.

I don’t know that there’s an easy answer to this problem, but I hope someone figures it out before the same townhome design populates the entire city.

PS: Ben says that Nickels is still planning a vote on ST 2.1 for this fall.

A Tale of Two Streets

Neat interactive feature from the Seattle Times on development around MLK light-rail stations.

It will be interesting to watch how MLK evolves differently than Rainier Avenue going forward. The two streets parallel each other, of course, but Rainier was developed auto-centrically, with the big Lowe’s and QFC stores with their massive parking lots out front. MLK was largely undeveloped in recent years, and so now it’s going to get re-developed in a transit-friendly way. Let’s check back in 20 years and see how different the two thoroughfares are. I think you can guess which one I think will succeed.

(via)

Light Rail in the Valley

The Seattle Times has a front-page story on the changes light rail is bringing to the neighborhoods along MLK Way. It’s a fine read, but I wish it had dug a bit deeper into the underlying reasons why the neighborhood is changing.

Pivoting off of daijimin’s post on the subject, I think there’s a much more complicated story to be told here. We know that light-rail was a disruption, and that many of the Asian immigrants who lived in the neighborhood moved away because of construction. But much of that was going to happen anyway. And anyone who thinks those communities won’t thrive outside of the Rainier Valley has obviously never been to Renton…or Federal Way…or Lynwood…or…

The story of immigrants to America first living in urban areas and then migrating out to the suburbs as they prospered is almost as old as America itself. After all, New York’s Lower East Side is no longer a bastion of Italians, Irish and Jews. And as an Irish-Italian descendant of those immigrants, I’m glad they made their way out.

On the other hand, if they’d held on to the real estate, I’d be sitting pretty right now! Which gets us to the other side of the coin: if you believe, as I do, that the cul-de-sacs of today could become the tenements of tomorrow, then it’s problematic, from a public policy perspective, to consign the poor folks to the auto-dependent suburbs at a time when auto-dependent lifestyles are on the wane.

Still, the newly-middle-class still seem more interested in movin’ on out (to the suburbs) than movin’ on up (to, say, a deluxe apartment in the sky). And not just in the U.S. Thousands of gated suburban communitites are going up in China to house that country’s newly mobile middle class. It’s mostly those of us who’ve lived for a generation or two in the suburbs who want to try living in the city for a change.

All of this is to say…. it’s complicated!

Translink and Real Estate, Take 2

A couple of months back daijimin at STB and I went back and forth
over Vancouver’s proposal to become a real-estate developer. At the time I argued that it was illegal because TIF is barred in our state constitution. Daijimin said, in response, that “if it’s illegal, we might as well go ahead with the even shadier plan of buying the land with eminent domain, building light rail then selling it after the prices go up. That way you capture all of the gains.”

Well, now that more details of the plan have emerged, I think daijimin may have been on to something: Translink has, it seems, gone with the “shadier” approach.

The nickel version of the idea is this: Translink needs funding to build new rail lines, and they know that the property around the stations is going to be in demand, so why not go the extra step and develop the property yourself and use that money to finance the project? It’s certainly more attractive than more property or sales taxes.

There are a couple of problems…

The first is eminent domain. Giving a property developer that kind of power sounds like a recipe for a massive conflict of interest. Already Translink is saying that the only way to reall make it work is to buy the property on the sly:

To build three rapid transit lines in a decade, TransLink will need to secure high-density zoning from municipalities to feed ridership and create opportunities to profit from the real estate appreciation, Jacobsen explained.

To acquire the land cheaply and beat out developers and speculators, TransLink will have early discussions about alignments and station locations and then quickly and quietly buy the land where stations are to be built.

Shady! Especially if, as a government agency they have access to the records about property transactions that private developers don’t have.

The second issue is that property development is itself a risky business. I know that Vancouver (and Cascadia generally) is supposed to be The Land Of Eternally Rising Property Value, but reality doesn’t work that way. Developers go belly-up all the time. Do we really want the trains to stop running if the real-estate market tanks?

Now, Vancouver’s planners are hella smart and I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve thought of these things. Or maybe it’s just different in Canada and the idea of giving a government agency that much power doesn’t make anyone sweat. After all, they’ve already done it in Hong Kong, apparently.

But if we’re looking for a potential solution for our own fair city, it seems like a LID is a safer, more reliable revenue stream, but one that effectively accomplishes the same thing. Of course, a LID requires all the property owners to approve. Even in South Lake Union, where the vast majority of the property is held by a single owner who was in favor of the tax, there was significant opposition from some property owners.

In short: there are no free lunches!

Surveys

So Sound Transit has amended their survey in response to criticism. Fine. The survey wasn’t scientific before, and it isn’t scientific now. Doesn’t really bother me. I feel like the main point of the thing was for ST to croudsource talking points. What better way to gather pullout quotes for an upcoming glossy brochure, right?

Anyway, you can’t really solve these things with polls anyway. Or initiatives for that matter. Great design — be it in computers, furniture, or transportation networks — involves getting out in front of people, seeing the things that they can’t quite see. Remember Henry Ford’s quote, “If I’d asked my customers what they wanted, they’d have said a faster horse.”

Of course, building transportation networks involves ripping up the fabric of our cities, and can’t be done without some level of popular support. But people don’t always have the best sense of what solutions can solve which problems.

Regionalism

I think Goldy’s basically right about the fear of regionalism in greater Seattle. We are, in fact, one big family, one big economy, and it’s silly to pretend otherwise. That said, I think the obvious rejoinder is that Goldy’s native Philly, where I lived myself for a few years, is a 19th-century hub-and-spoke city, whereas Seattle is not. So it makes sense that we’ve got a slew of Edge Cities, to use Joel Garreau’s phrase, that don’t consider themselves tied to the urban core (and are certainly not old-style bedroom communities the way Bala Cynwyd is).

But what really gets my goat is this Seattle Times op-ed, the genesis of Goldy’s post, that gives us the tired lament that Seattle is (a) too expensive and (b) too childless:

For the working middle class, people who traditionally lived comfortably in Seattle, the firefighters, police officers, teachers, even professors, it has become harder to buy a home and raise a family.

As economist Dick Conway put it, the region has affordable housing, it just may not be in Seattle. If it is OK for everyone to move to Kent or Duvall or Idaho, for that matter, then no problem. But that is impractical.

So if you’re a teacher, it’s impractical to live in Kent and work in Seattle? Why? Sound Transit proposed expanding light rail to Tacoma so that that nice teacher from Kent could enjoy a comfortable, reliable commute to Tacoma, Seattle, Northgate, the UW, Bellevue, or Redmond, and maybe even grade some papers on the way home at night.

But the Seattle Times didn’t want that, so it recommended a “no” vote on Prop 1.

As to the childless part, again, if we’re one region, why does it matter? If we’re all connected by a reliable transit network, why can’t families choose to live in the suburbs? But even that’s besides the point, since, many families can afford to live in Seattle, they just have other priorities. They could choose to live in a smaller house, with little or no yard (but close access to a fantastic public park system), and rest easy that their teenagers aren’t speeding up and down Route 202 late at night to get to their friends’ house. It’s a choice.