November 2008

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Third Runway

The long awaited third runway at Sea-Tac will finally open this month. Meanwhile, the PSRC’s Prosperity Blog also notes that Delta (new owner of Northwest) is bagging it’s nonstop to London. The result will probably be British Airways raising prices and monopolizing the route for a while.

Fewer flights at Sea-Tac, plus increased capacity, may slow the need for a second major airport, but Sea-Tac will still hit capacity in 20 years or so. Then what? Boeing Field? Paine Field?

Tolling 520

Following up on bgothen’s post below, the latest thinking on 520 is to toll just bridge itself, apparently. Which makes sense. There was an idea afoot to charge a variable toll for a larger length of the roadway, which would have been a much more aggressive congestion pricing scheme, but would have only made sense in the context of a full, regional congestion pricing initiative.

On that note, be sure to check out the PSRC’s new report on regional tolling and Clark Williams-Derry’s great analysis.

SR-520

Now that 985 has failed it looks like the 520 project is moving forward at full tilt. I’m not sure how long they have had this website up (http://www.build520.org/) but they are looking for feedback about tolling. Just today on the bus I also saw a metro bulletin asking if tolls on 520 should be used to fund bus service. Looks like some good stuff is in the works!

A Little Perspective

We hear a lot of doom-and-gloom about how the Chinese are all going to buy cars and be just like us. We need to see this in context.

As described in this Business Week article, “Beijing plans to spend $248 billion through 2020 on 75,000 miles of new track, for both freight and high-speed passenger lines. At that point, China’s high-speed passenger network will likely be the biggest on earth.” Of course, that figure could be more with the recent announcement by China of a $548 billion stimulus program to build infrastructure and provide social welfare.

This is the kind of thing you can do if you are a nation of a billion but only spend about $60 billion a year on the military. That’s about $60 per capita, while our expenses are about $1800 per capita. Quite a difference, considering we’re the ones who already have 10,000 nuclear warheads.

How It's Done

Brian Bundridge has got an excellent post about improvements to track on the Cascades route north of Seattle. Definitely worth reading this one a few times to bring out the full glory of how many millions are needed to shave a few minutes from the timetable.

Baghdad's SUPERTRAIN

Commuter rail in Baghdad is open, thanks to the US of A:

Election's Over

Nice series of posts here and over at STB recently on what to do next, now that we’ve got a 15-year plan to bring light rail to the region.

I agree that improving on the Amtrak Cascades is a good priority. Seattle’s west side is still out there, as is that hypothetical streetcar network we heard so much about last spring.

Me? I’m gearing up to fight the 2009 “Recall Sound Transit” initiative…

(kidding!… sorta… I hope… gulp.)

The Next Big Task

The next big job for Puget Sound rail advocates is the creation of a rail corridor between Seattle and Portland that takes market share from the commuter flights and the freeway.

A lot of work has been done already, but the job won’t be finished until grade-separated rail for passenger-only operation stretches from Vancouver BC to Salem or Eugene Oregon. Rails like these could carry trains at 150 mph, a truly useful speed.

Whatever the efficiency of an airliner at 40,000 feet may be, a lot of that efficiency is lost when you spend half the flight climbing to altitude, and the security check in the terminal takes longer than the flight.

Vancouver (BC), Seattle, Tacoma, Vancouver (Washington) and Portland are competitors as ports, but collaborators in the research and information industries. Whatever drives people to drive or fly today should make them take the train tomorrow. And our job is to make that a feature, not a bug.

Construction Costs

For a while there, the construction costs were rising at 10% to 15% annually. This was making infrastructure projects incredibly expensive. Competition for cement and construction workers were among the factors driving these cost increases. Sound Transit got one lousy bidder for SeaTac station, and the bid was double their budget! Construction companies had too much work on their hands to bother.

But with the bursting of the housing bubble and the overall slowing of the economy, infrastructure projects should become less expensive. Also, the cost of acquiring land will likely go down. California is set to spend $3 to $4 Billion just buying land for their high speed rail link. How much would that land have cost if it were purchased two years ago, at the height of the California housing bubble?

Point being, these costs should subside in the coming years. Of course, they’re subsiding because the economy is cooling overall, meaning that tax revenues are going to go down. Will Sound Transit suffer a revenue shortfall because of this? Will the decrease in construction costs be more than enough to cancel it out? Hard to say. If anyone has answers to these questions, feel free to drop a line.

Why don't they call it the Washington P.I.?

Just a quick observation. Prop 1 doesn’t even rate on the PI’s election results, which only lists statewide and national election data.