June 2008

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Amtrak and Fuel Economy

The NYT has a good overview today of the challenges facing Amtrak, including this interesting point about fuel efficiency:

Oil costs hurt Amtrak, too. Fuel is projected to reach 11 percent of Amtrak’s budget this year, up from 6 percent in 2004. The railroad is not radically more energy-efficient than other means of travel. Amtrak can move a passenger a mile with 17.4 percent less fuel than a passenger car can, and about 32.9 percent less than an airline can, according to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

It does save oil, however, since much of the fuel Amtrak uses is in the form of electricity, made from coal, natural gas and nuclear power.

I don’t know what their definition of “radical” is, but that’s certainly more fuel efficient. And, presumably, the total GHG emissions would decline substantially as the electricity that powers the system is made greener.

For example, check out this report:

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On these routes, rail emits roughly half the CO2 as air travel.

Driving Less

Only a 1% drop, but still, it’s something.

Amtrak's President Kummant Speaks

Via Juan Cole, an interview with Amtrak’s President Alex Kummant, with juicy talking points like:

“If you actually look at the amount of public capital that flows into the rail network per passenger, it’s like $40 a passenger for Amtrak and $500 to $700 per automobile out there through the highways.”

Gas Stations

There are a lot of interesting nuggets in this BusinessWeek article on gas stations.

The context is that gas stations are in a bind. They have to keep prices low or people will just drive across the street, keeping margins very low. But since credit card fees are based on the total cost of sale, the fees are now exceeding the margins. So, stations lose money on every gallon sold. Like movie theaters, they make their money on the extras, except instead of popcorn, it’s cigarettes and auto services. Gas itself is often a loss leader (and most filling stations are not owned by the company whose logo graces their pumps, they’re franchises).

So, the result is predictable. Stations are going out of business:

Plenty of filling stations have already gone under. Last year, 3,184 of the nation’s 164,292 gasoline stations closed their doors and went out of business, the biggest drop in five years, according to National Petroleum News. In the mid-1990s, there were more than 200,000 stations in the U.S. Experts think there are more closures to come.

[One] station, which sells almost 2 million gallons of gasoline a year, picked up 500,000 gallons’ worth of business last year when the other stations disappeared. If filling stations keep closing or selling out, “I could end up with a near monopoly here,” he says.

The immense network of filling stations has been one of the gas-powered auto’s key advantages over other alternatives. Could that be going away, too?

Rail vs. Air

Funny, when the service is equivalent, and people are given the chance to take a high-speed train instead of a plane, they will:

[T]he country where high speed trains are growing the fastest is seeing the effects as well: The Madrid-Barcelona high speed link in Spain (AVE), which started operating in March, has reduced by about 18.4 percent the air traffic between the two cities.

That’s almost 1 in 5 flights, eliminated! Think of the relief that brings to overstretched airports. And, of course, it makes perfect sense. When you can go 400 miles in 2 hours — downtown to downtown, with no security checkpoints — why would you ever fly?

Fill 'Er Up

But whatever you do, don’t use premium:

As the price of fuel continues to climb, more drivers are trying to save 20 or so cents a gallon by using regular or midgrade gasoline, even when their owner’s manuals recommend premium.

For gas station managers, fuel suppliers and motorists across the country, the run on the cheaper fuel has led to more uncertainty at the pumps, as some stations have run out of the cheaper grades.

I can’t imagine this is good for the cars in the long run. Regardless, here in Washington, consumption of premium has dropped only slightly compared to the drop in regular.

The New Batch of Flyers

Metro’s latest order of 22 hybrid busses rolled into service last week. The 2008 version of the DE60LF has some modifications from the original 2004 version, notably a Cummins engine that replaces the Caterpillar C9.

Reader JK rode on one the other day and sent in this report:

- the idles and starts seemed a lot smoother and quieter–from both the engine and HVAC system, which might indicate more usage of the hybrid modes with more batteries

- the seat arrangements are slightly different: there is now a “modesty panel” in front of the first row of forward-facing seats; the double seats on each side of the articulation are now singles; in the handicapped seating area is the normal wide inward-facing bench right next a single “jump seat”

- the seats have a new material which seems more slip resistant (great for those quick or sudden stops!); the back-of-seat handles also have a re-design

- the articulation is now a “full-circle” on the floor, unlike the previous DE60LF’s which had a “half-circle”; there are now ceiling grab handles in the articulation

- the HVAC unit seems to be mounted further forward over the front half of the coach, probably to make room for more batteries

- there is greater use of LEDs for loading lights (outside facing the ground and in the doorways)

- THE WINDOWS DO NOT OPEN!

Oranviri has pics here.

Weird Dudes

It’s true, the small cabal of anti-transit die-hards that manage to get themselves quoted in every single article or news story on Sound Transit are a weird bunch.

They’re a lot like global warming deniers: nobody intelligent takes them seriously, yet the media gives them a platform because of a misguided notion of “balance.”

Nearly every major city in every developed nation on planet Earth has some kind of rail network, and they all seem to be quite happy with them. But Seattle is apparently soooo different and sooooo special that rail transit can’t possibly work here.

Back to the Ballot?

Mike Lindblom lays out the various dillemas facing Sound Transit as it debates whether to go back to the ballot in the fall.

There are two main hurdles, it seems: getting Snohomish County to sign off, and deciding whether anxiety over $4 gas makes people more transit-friendly, or just more concerned about the economy and thus less likely to support a tax increase.

What I’ve been hearing, second- and third-hand, is that local officials are pretty confident about a re-vote in 2008. The plan would be a 0.5% sales tax hike. The thinking is that, if they do the full 0.5%, but shrink the route a bit at the ends*, they can pursue a more aggresive timeline and open by 2018 or 2020.

Also, for what it’s worth, Bus Chick states unequivocally that there will be a vote in ’08.

* Exact amount of shrinkage TBD, but I think it’s reasonable to assume Lynwood to the north, Overlake Hospital (which is not as far as Overlake Transit Center, sadly) to the East and Federal Way to the South. Federal Way’s been aggressively urbanizing their downtown, and they deserve to be rewarded with a rail stop.

Cascades: The Long-Range Plan

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After reading Ben’s excellent look at the Amtrak Cascades, it’s worth checking out the long-range plan he’s talking about, if you haven’t already.

“Timetable F” is the last of six phases that would be required to get the kind of service that would truly transform the region: 2.5 hours to either Portland or Vancouver, with 4 trains per day heading North and 13 heading South.

The total capital costs for the entire plan are estimated at $6.6B over 20 years. Not chump change, but not break-the-bank either: just $330M per year (in 2006 dollars). We can do it if we want. And it would be incredible for the region, a major step forward for a Cascadia that’s charting a different, more sustainable path from the rest of America.

The plan is there, waiting for the funding. And the funding looks more plausible than ever.