But How Will They Taste It?
Dan Savage writes:
We may not get more light rail on the ballot this year, but once Sound Transit's light rail line opens to the airport and people around here—people that don't travel or don't pay attention when they do, or the folks that are convinced that Seattle is perfect in every possible way just as it is (or was in 1964)— get a real taste of real mass transit, voters will be clamoring to approve and pay for more rail lines.
You hear this argument often, that once people get a taste for real transit, they'll clamor for more. You hear it especially from folks who want to wait until 2010 to put another light rail measure on the ballot.
I take such sentiments at face value, but Dan's comments got me thinking: how many people, exactly, are going to "taste" it between when it opens in mid-2009 (or December 2009 for the Airport Link) and a vote in November of 2010? Certainly it will be popular among a certain slice of the Seattle population -- residents of the Rainier Valley, for example -- but will folks who live in, say, Green Lake and commute to the Eastside even notice? Not to mention people who live on the other side of Lake Washington, people we'll need to convince if we're going to pass a measure that goes across the water.
To be sure, they'll get glimpses. Hopefully there will be a raft of great PR for Sound Transit following the opening of the line (the rinky-dinky Streetcar even got a ton of ink, after all). And plenty of people will get a look at the train coming into the Airport as they drive down I-5 or SR 518. Maybe that will be enough to tip the balance. Still, I can't shake the feeling that, for a large slice of the electorate, light rail will be just as theoretical in 2010 as it is today.
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Once the media covers people with real jobs being happy to ride the train, that's all it takes - Dallas and Houston approved huge light rail expansions based on a starter line that most voters never rode.
Of course, this can go the other way too - voters view rail skeptically in South Florida even though many of them are former New Yorkers, because of how media has covered the disaster of Tri-Rail. (Which is why I'm so scared for Austin).
I think part of the answer lies in the probability that people don't need to be sold on the idea that a train ride would be nice, they need to be sold on the idea that the transit authority can complete the line and operate it without serious problems.
Just as very few people are within walking distance of a station when a new line opens, very few people are actually waiting with keen anticipation for the opening of any specific new road segment. We approve more roads, which actually seem to affect us mostly in the occurrence of construction delays, because over time the system seems to work. Conversely, in this area the system doesn't seem to be working well anymore, and voters are leery of plans to add specific lanes which they personally probably won't use.
If ST-Link opens on time and operates reliably, I'm guessing it improves the chances for extensions.
I used to subscribe to the idea that once people saw what they were missing out on it, they'd want to know how quickly they could get in on the goodness. (I've lived back in the region two short years and I've lost track of how many times I've seen people stupidly vote against something they should have voted for here in Federal Way.)
But I'm starting to realize to realize that voters are dumb and can't be trusted to consider the bigger picture.
Not to mention if I'm an area that gets served by the first round of light rail (I'm not), what incentive do I have to vote for more rounds? That would just be more people on my private little train to the airport, costing me additional taxes to send trains places I don't want to go. (Again, this is pointing out short-sighted cluelessness, not an actual view I hold.)